The global climate efforts are facing a major challenge as the world is heading towards surpassing the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. According to the latest emissions gap report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), there is a slim chance of achieving this target if current trends continue. Even in the most optimistic scenarios, there is a high probability that warming will exceed 1.5 degrees.
The 1.5-degree Celsius target has been a crucial benchmark for countries to shape their national climate plans. However, there has been growing skepticism within the scientific community about the feasibility of achieving this target. Immediate and significant action is required from all countries and sectors, along with a massive scale-up of technology, to meet this goal without delays or excessive costs.
The UNEP report highlights the significant gap between the current growth in global greenhouse gas emissions under countries’ commitments and where they should be to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. The existing policies are projected to lead to a temperature increase of 2.6 to 3.1 degrees Celsius. With the world already warmed by 1.3 degrees, the 1.5-degree target could be reached in less than a decade at the current rate of warming.
Countries are expected to submit stronger plans to the U.N. early next year on how they intend to fulfill their obligations under the Paris Agreement. The report emphasizes the need for nations to not only meet their current pledges for 2030 but also surpass them and submit more ambitious plans for 2035. However, the report estimates that even with the most ambitious pledges fully implemented, emissions would only decrease by 10 percent in 2030 compared to 2019 levels, falling short of the 42 percent decline needed to align with the 1.5-degree target.
Inger Andersen, the head of UNEP, warned that without a significant increase in action, the 1.5-degree target could become unattainable in a few years. While some scientists argue that maintaining the 1.5-degree target may obscure the severity of the climate crisis, others believe that it is essential to continue pursuing it to reduce emissions in the near term.
The urgency to address the climate crisis has been underscored by record heat waves, extreme flooding, and droughts affecting communities worldwide. As the world faces a critical juncture in combating climate change, it is imperative for countries to take immediate and decisive action to prevent catastrophic consequences.
