Scientists Predict 2025 to be Among Top Three Warmest Years on Record
It is not even Christmas yet: trees are still being decorated, turkeys are yet to be defrosted, and Christmas puddings remain intact. But though 2024 is not even out, scientists already have a handle on how hot 2025 will be. The Met Office has revealed that next year’s global average temperature is likely to be the third-highest on record, going back to 1850, after 2024 and 2023, which hold the top two spots.
Underlying Trends and Climate Change Impact
This year is on course to be at least 1.5 degrees Celsius hotter than pre-industrial times, before humans started burning fossil fuels at scale. In comparison, 2023 was 1.45 degrees Celsius warmer. The forecast for 2025 predicts a temperature increase of at least 1.29 degrees Celsius, potentially reaching 1.4 degrees Celsius, displacing 2020 into fourth place. Despite the waning El Nino weather pattern, which had a warming effect on 2023 and 2024, 2025 is expected to be hot due to an underlying trend causing all years to become hotter – climate change.
Greenhouse gases, primarily from fossil fuels, are accumulating in the atmosphere, warming the planet. This accumulation has led scientists to be confident that 2025 will be a hot year, despite the absence of El Nino’s warming influence.
Factors Contributing to Temperature Surge
Professor Adam Scaife from the Met Office highlighted that the 2023/24 El Nino event temporarily boosted global temperatures due to rising temperatures driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Climate researchers are investigating other factors responsible for the recent temperature surge, such as the impact of the Hunga-Tonga volcano eruption, reduced aerosols from shipping emissions, and abnormal heat in the oceans. These investigations aim to understand the various contributors to temperature changes beyond greenhouse gas emissions.
Global Efforts to Combat Climate Change
Global average temperatures, as reported by the Met Office, provide an overview that averages out extremes from different regions globally. Despite high global average temperatures, some countries may still experience cold weather. Nations are striving to limit global warming to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with an ideal target of 1.5 degrees Celsius. This commitment was made under the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, which countries aim to uphold through their annual COP climate summits.
During a recent climate summit, Rachel Kyte, the UK’s climate envoy, expressed concerns about the fragility of the Paris Agreement. She noted that the treaty is losing support from various countries due to differing opinions on the pace of action needed to combat climate change. The delicate balance between rapid action and gradual progress poses a challenge to global efforts to address the climate crisis.