Kamala Harris: A Strategic Political Move
The decision to push Joe Biden out of the presidential race and endorse Kamala Harris as the new Democratic nominee was not just a lucky guess by party elites—it was based on actual data. Despite waves of political pundits calling for Biden to drop out following a poorly received debate performance, the Biden team pointed to public opinion polls showing that voting intentions remained steady. However, a growing pressure campaign from donors and party leaders eventually led to Biden’s exit and Harris’s rise to the forefront.
In hindsight, it’s easy to see that the decision to back Harris was the right one. The improvement in Democrats’ polling after she became the nominee validated the choice made in July. Before Biden withdrew, both Harris and Biden were performing similarly in head-to-head polling against Donald Trump. While there was no guarantee that changing nominees would improve those numbers, the gamble paid off. Within days of Biden dropping out, Democrats rallied around Harris, providing her with the support needed to become the party’s presumptive nominee.
The Role of Polling Data
Polling data played a crucial role in the decision to shift support from Biden to Harris. While voting intention measures are essential, enthusiasm among voters can make a significant difference. Biden’s campaign had been losing momentum, with decreasing enthusiasm among Democratic voters since 2022. By July, only a small percentage of Democrats were satisfied with him in a matchup against Trump. The majority believed he should drop out of the race, and his attempts to revitalize his image fell flat.
The pressure campaign from Democratic elites to push Biden out was not just based on a narrative spun by critics and news outlets—it reflected the sentiments of ordinary Democrats. The party leaders had to make a difficult decision, but based on the available evidence, their choice was well informed. Since Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee, her campaign has seen a surge in enthusiasm, particularly among Black and younger voters.
The Impact of Harris’s Campaign
Harris’s campaign has garnered significant support and enthusiasm from key Democratic voting coalitions that Biden was struggling to connect with. The switch from Biden to Harris has revitalized the party, with a majority of Democrats expressing satisfaction with their new candidate in a matchup against Trump. The Democratic Party has emerged from the DNC feeling reenergized and enthusiastic about voting, despite facing a close race.
Democratic elites are aware of the importance of maintaining enthusiasm among voters and minimizing any potential backlash from the switch in nominees. To address this, they have highlighted Biden’s contributions and received him warmly at the DNC to smooth over any hard feelings. However, the focus remains on ensuring that voters remain enthusiastic and turnout in high numbers to support Harris in the upcoming election.
As the race for the White House heats up, Democrats must now focus on the next major hurdle: the upcoming debate between Harris and Trump. The outcome of this debate could determine the level of enthusiasm and voter turnout for Harris, ultimately impacting her chances of winning the election. The decision to back Harris over Biden was a strategic political move based on data and analysis, but the true test lies ahead in mobilizing voters and securing a victory in a tight race.