For most of the 20th century, each decade saw an increase of about three years in the average lifespan of people in developed countries. This meant that someone born in the early 2000s could expect to live about 30 years longer than someone born in 1900, allowing them to reach their 80th birthday on average. These gains in longevity were made possible by advancements in medical technology and public health measures.
However, recent research suggests that human longevity may have reached its peak. Despite ongoing efforts to extend life through medical advances, studies show that the rate of improvement in average life expectancy has slowed down in the past three decades in the world’s longest-lived countries. This is due to the complex nature of aging, which leads to various health issues such as frailty, dementia, heart disease, and sensory impairments.
S. Jay Olshansky, a professor of public health at the University of Illinois at Chicago, has been studying the aging process for years. His research indicates that as people live longer, they are more susceptible to age-related diseases, making it challenging to extend life indefinitely. In a recent study published in Nature Aging, Olshansky and his colleagues analyzed changes in death rates and life expectancies in the longest-lived countries and found that the rate of improvement in life expectancy has slowed in most places, with the U.S. even experiencing a decline.
While some countries like South Korea and Hong Kong have seen accelerated improvements in survival rates in recent years, the overall trend suggests that radical life extension beyond a certain point may not be feasible. In fact, the researchers found that only a small percentage of children born today are expected to live to 100 years old, even in countries with the longest lifespans.
These findings challenge the notion of continued radical life extension and suggest that the focus should shift to geroscience, a field of research dedicated to extending people’s health span rather than their overall lifespan. By understanding the mechanisms of healthy aging, researchers hope to develop interventions that promote healthy aging and improve quality of life in old age.
Experts like Nalini Raghavachari from the U.S. National Institute on Aging agree that studying the factors that contribute to exceptional health span in long-lived populations could provide valuable insights for developing new therapeutic strategies. By focusing on healthy aging rather than simply extending lifespan, researchers aim to enhance the quality of life for older adults and address the challenges associated with an aging population.