Tensions in the Middle East have been escalating, with President Joe Biden focusing on ending the war in Gaza and bringing peace to the region before the end of his term. However, his decision to not seek reelection has limited his ability to effectively manage the crisis. Biden’s withdrawal from the race has weakened his authority, making it challenging for him to control the risks of conflict in the region.
In the past, outgoing presidents who were not seeking reelection often engaged in diplomatic efforts to leave a lasting legacy in foreign policy. The Middle East has been a common area of interest for these presidents, with hopes of brokering peace agreements. However, without the credibility that comes with facing reelection, lame-duck presidents like Biden struggle to make significant commitments that outlast their term.
Biden’s attempts to influence Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies have been met with limited success. Despite setting red lines, such as withholding weapons for offensive attacks, the administration’s leverage over Israel has been minimal. Additionally, internal political dynamics within the U.S., such as partisan views on the conflict, have further complicated Biden’s efforts to mediate the situation.
The looming U.S. election adds another layer of complexity to the situation, as the possibility of a change in administration could impact the outcomes of any diplomatic efforts. Biden’s focus on ensuring a Democratic victory has also influenced the administration’s approach to the conflict, with efforts to pressure Netanyahu kept discreet to avoid public scrutiny.
Historical examples of past presidents facing similar challenges, such as Truman’s struggles in Korea and Johnson’s difficulties in Vietnam, highlight the uphill battle that Biden faces in the Middle East. The likelihood of achieving peace in the region before the end of his term seems slim, especially given the current political landscape and the ongoing conflict.
While a potential win by Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming election may provide some continuity to Biden’s diplomatic efforts, the broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East suggest that lasting peace may be out of reach for the current administration. Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race has significantly impacted his ability to address the crisis effectively, leaving the region vulnerable to further escalation.
