Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier Unlikely to Collapse Soon
Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier has been dubbed the “Doomsday Glacier” due to the potential catastrophic impact it could have on global sea levels if it were to collapse. The glacier is currently contributing about 4% of annual sea-level rise, and there have been concerns that it could undergo a rapid collapse into the ocean, leading to widespread flooding of coastlines around the world. However, a recent study has revealed that the worst-case scenario for the collapse of Thwaites Glacier may not be as imminent as previously thought.
Thwaites Glacier, which spans a massive area of about 74,000 square miles, plays a crucial role in the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. If the glacier were to destabilize, it could trigger a chain reaction that would affect neighboring glaciers and ultimately lead to a significant rise in global sea levels. The implications of a collapse of Thwaites Glacier are far-reaching and could have dire consequences for coastal regions worldwide.
One of the key concerns surrounding Thwaites Glacier is the concept of marine ice cliff instability, which posits that the collapse of the glacier’s ice shelf could lead to the rapid disintegration of its ice cliffs, resulting in a cascading effect of ever-higher cliffs collapsing one after the other. While this theory has raised alarm bells in the scientific community, the latest research suggests that the risk of marine ice cliff instability causing a rapid collapse of Thwaites Glacier may be lower than previously anticipated.
Polar scientist Mathieu Morlighem, who led the study, explains that Thwaites Glacier is currently experiencing a slow-motion disaster as it continues to retreat at an accelerating rate due to climate change. The glacier’s bedrock slopes downward toward the interior of the ice sheet, making it increasingly difficult to slow down its retreat once it begins losing more ice than it gains from snowfall. However, the study’s findings indicate that even if Thwaites’ ice shelf were to collapse, its ice front would not rapidly retreat inland due to marine ice cliff instability alone.
The study used high-resolution models to simulate various scenarios of ice shelf collapse and found that Thwaites Glacier would remain relatively stable at least through 2100. Even in the event of an ice shelf collapse in 50 years, the glacier’s retreat would not be as rapid as previously feared. This new understanding of ice cliff instability challenges recent estimates of Thwaites’ vulnerability and suggests that the worst-case scenario of its collapse may be less likely than previously thought.
While marine ice cliff instability is a significant factor in the stability of Thwaites Glacier, there are other processes contributing to the glacier’s accelerating retreat. Ice-ocean interactions, in which warm ocean currents thin the ice shelves from below, have been identified as a key driver of ice loss in Antarctica. The intrusion of warm water from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Amundsen Sea sector, where Thwaites Glacier is located, has been melting the ice shelves and causing the ice streams to flow faster.
The role of climate change in the destabilization of Antarctica’s ice sheets cannot be understated. Human activities that lead to global warming, such as the burning of fossil fuels, have had a profound impact on the polar regions. The loss of ice in Antarctica contributes to rising sea levels, which pose a threat to coastal regions worldwide. The choices we make today will determine the speed at which sea levels rise and the extent of the impact on coastal communities.
In conclusion, while the risk of Thwaites Glacier collapsing due to marine ice cliff instability may be lower than previously thought, the glacier remains susceptible to various other factors that could contribute to its destabilization. The findings of the study provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of Antarctica’s ice sheets and underscore the importance of addressing climate change to mitigate the risks posed by melting glaciers. The future of Thwaites Glacier and its implications for global sea levels are closely tied to our actions in combating climate change and preserving the stability of our planet’s polar regions.
