Climate change is causing a significant increase in dengue fever cases worldwide, according to a recent study. The study estimates that nearly 20% of dengue cases can be attributed to climate change, and this number could rise to 60% by 2050 if no action is taken to address global warming.
The researchers analyzed data from 21 countries in Asia and the Americas where dengue is endemic and found that rising temperatures were responsible for 19% of dengue infections. This is the first time that climate change has been directly linked to the spread of dengue.
Mosquitoes, which transmit dengue, are cold-blooded and their growth and reproduction rates increase with higher temperatures. As temperatures rise, the number of mosquitoes carrying the virus also increases, leading to higher infection rates. The optimal temperature range for dengue transmission is between 59-84.2 degrees Fahrenheit, and as temperatures continue to rise, infections are expected to increase in regions where dengue is already endemic.
In some countries like Peru, Mexico, Bolivia, and Brazil, dengue infections may rise by over 150% in the coming decades due to higher temperatures. However, in regions where temperatures exceed 86 degrees Fahrenheit, mosquito populations may decline, leading to a reduction in infection rates.
The researchers emphasize that reducing carbon emissions to mitigate global warming is crucial in preventing a surge in dengue cases. If carbon dioxide emissions are reduced to net-zero by 2050, there could be a 7% smaller increase in dengue cases globally.
While the study did not focus on the United States, there is evidence that climate change is making dengue more common in states like California, Texas, Florida, Hawaii, and Arizona. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have warned of a higher risk of dengue infection in the U.S. due to rising global cases.
As temperatures become more suitable for dengue transmission in the U.S., public health responses will need to be strengthened to reduce mosquito populations and prevent the spread of the disease. Dengue is expected to become more prevalent in regions that are currently at the edge of the optimal temperature range for transmission.
Overall, the study underscores the urgent need to address climate change to prevent a significant increase in dengue cases globally. By taking action to reduce carbon emissions, we can help mitigate the impact of rising temperatures on the spread of this mosquito-borne disease.
